What Wins: Finding Profitable Betting Patterns in Historical Data
What Wins is a pattern discovery tool built into RaceMetrics that identifies horses, trainers, jockeys and other participants with a proven edge under specific race conditions. Instead of guessing which angles might work, What Wins calculates Impact Value (IV) across thousands of historical races to show you which combinations have genuinely outperformed expectations.
How to Access What Wins
Open any racecard and switch to the Form Expert view. Click the What Wins button in the control bar. The feature is available to Basic tier subscribers and above.
Understanding Impact Value
Impact Value measures how often a participant wins relative to random chance. The calculation is straightforward: actual wins divided by expected wins (based on field size). An IV of 1.0 means the participant wins at exactly the expected rate. Higher scores indicate genuine edges.
- 1.5x: Wins 50% more often than expected
- 2.0x: Wins twice as often as expected
- 3.0x+: Exceptional historical edge
The 11 Filter Conditions
What Wins analyses each participant across 11 different condition combinations. These include going, class, course, distance and field size individually, plus paired combinations like going + class and course + distance pairings. The tool also examines three-condition combinations such as going + class + distance.
This multi-layered approach reveals which participants excel under specific circumstances — not just overall, but in the exact conditions your target race presents.
Why Impact Value Matters
A horse with a 1.8x IV at today's track and distance over this ground has a documented history of outperforming the field by 80% under those precise conditions. That's a measurable edge, not speculation. What Wins automates the pattern-hunting work, letting you compare Impact Values across the field in seconds rather than hours of manual form analysis.
