What Wins: Finding Historical Edges in Your Racecards
What Wins is a pattern discovery tool built into RaceMetrics that identifies profitable betting angles by analysing historical performance data. Rather than relying on gut instinct, it calculates how often horses, jockeys, trainers and other participants have outperformed expectations under specific race conditions.
How to Access What Wins
Open any racecard in RaceMetrics and switch to the Form Expert view. You'll find the What Wins button in the control bar. The feature is available to Basic tier subscribers and above.
Understanding Impact Value
The core metric is Impact Value (IV), which measures how much a participant outperforms random chance when specific conditions are present. The calculation is straightforward: actual wins divided by expected wins based on field sizes.
An IV of 1.0x means a participant wins at exactly the expected rate—average performance. Higher scores indicate an edge:
- 1.5x: Wins 50% more often than expected
- 2.0x: Wins twice as often as expected
- 3.0x+: Significant historical advantage
Eleven Filter Combinations
What Wins analyses 11 different condition combinations for each participant. These range from single factors—going, class level, course, distance and field size—to multi-factor combinations like going plus class, or the course-and-distance pairing.
This granular approach reveals which specific conditions have historically favoured each participant. A trainer's record on firm ground at Ascot, for example, might tell a different story than their overall record.
Using the Data
By filtering conditions to match your target race, you can spot participants with proven edges in similar situations. The Impact Value framework lets you compare these edges objectively rather than relying on subjective form reading.
