RaceMetrics has added a new System Builder filter to identify runners by sire crop number. The feature isolates first-crop two-year-olds—progeny from stallions whose first runners actually started competing—and breaks down their record by Betfair starting price.
The Data
Since 2018, first-crop two-year-olds have recorded 21,385 runs with 2,293 winners at a 10.7 per cent strike rate. An A over E index of 1.03 means they win roughly in line with their share of the field. But the aggregate masks a price-dependent edge.
At 33-1 and bigger, the index reaches 1.17. At 8-1 to 14-1, it sits at 1.10. At 16-1 to 28, it drops to 1.07. Prices of 2-1 and shorter cluster near par. The outsiders outperform their odds; the favourites do not.
The Catch
The edge fades with older crops. Second, third and fourth crops show smaller advantages. By the fifth crop, the outperformance vanishes entirely. This pattern is specific to first-crop runners.
RaceMetrics notes the returns are streaky enough that big-price winners can move results substantially. The A over E gap is statistically solid, but the feature should not be treated as a system in isolation.
How to Use It
In System Builder, set the First-Season Sire filter to yes and select the age range for two-year-olds. Use the Sire's Crop Number filter to isolate first crops only, or include runners from the first two crop seasons, or exclude them altogether. Results can then be split by starting price band.
The First-Season Sire and Sire’s Crop Number filters are part of System Builder, available with Proform Premium and RaceMetrics Pro. Back-tests cover UK and Irish racing from January 2018. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
