RaceMetrics has added four new filters to System Builder: Draw IV, Pace IV, a tactical score combining them, and a draw-by-pace cell testing both together. All four figures have appeared on racecards for some time. Until now, you could only observe them. You can now back-test them.
What the data shows
Analysis of 626,913 flat runners since 2018 reveals a clear pattern. Strike rates climb from 9.3% with a bad draw to 11.1% with a favoured draw. The draw demonstrably affects which horses win.
However, the A/E column—which measures performance against market odds—stays flat across all draw bands, ranging from 0.99 to 1.01. The market has already priced in the draw's impact. Knowing the draw matters is not the same as knowing it is worth backing.
How to use it
These filters are building blocks for systems, not systems themselves. Add draw or pace filters to an existing system and test whether they improve your numbers. Alternatively, use them to exclude runners you would otherwise back.
The pace figures draw from a horse's last ten runs. Roughly 9% of flat runners have no run-style history, and 23% have only one to three runs. Set a minimum run sample before trusting a pace figure, or you risk reading noise.
All four figures are also available as they stood last time out, allowing you to identify horses that finished well despite an unfavourable draw.
