Cheltenham Grand Annual Chase – 11 March 2026

The Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase at Cheltenham's Festival brings together a competitive field of 22 over one mile seven furlongs on Good To Soft ground. This Class 1 premier handicap demands proven credentials at the sharp end, and the data paints a clear picture of which runners belong.

The Selection: Jazzy Matty

Jazzy Matty is the standout play at 7.50. His Form Expert record on Good To Soft turf reads 2 wins from 3 runs—a genuinely exceptional strike rate on today's exact conditions. At Cheltenham specifically, he holds 2 wins from 4 runs. He also boasts 2 wins from 10 in very large fields of 16–99 runners, directly addressing the field size here. Most crucially in a Class 1 contest, he has 2 wins from 8 runs. C. Collins' runner arrives just 52 days since his last outing, carries a RaceMetrics Rating of 1516 from a Combined Score of 1505, and Danny Gilligan has the ride. The numbers align across all relevant filters.

The Danger

Rubaud (17.00) cannot be ignored despite his longer price. He tops the Combined Score standings at 1535 with an H Rating of 1585, and his Class 1 record is formidable: 9 wins from 21 runs. He has 11 wins from 24 runs over the <2m2f trip and 1 win from 5 on Good To Soft going. The only blemishes are an unproven Cheltenham record (0 from 1) and no wins in very large fields (0 from 1), though he returns off just 25 days' absence under Harry Cobden for Paul Nicholls.

Vanderpoel (9.00) merits serious consideration. On Good To Soft turf he shows 2 wins from 3 runs. Over <2m2f he has 4 wins from 7, a potent strike rate. He is untried in Class 1 (0 from 1), which is a real concern, but Ben Pauling's 7-year-old has been off 67 days—potentially a significant layoff. His distance pedigree is strong, but the Class 1 unknown remains his vulnerability.

At a Price

Be Aware (5.50) is the shortest-priced runner but presents risk. His Class 1 record stands at 0 wins from 7 runs, and he has never won at Cheltenham (0 from 3). While he does show 1 win from 4 in very large fields and 1 from 4 on Good To Soft going, his repeated pattern of defeat in top-class company is a red flag despite his RaceMetrics H Rating of 1600.

Verdict

Jazzy Matty to win at 7.50. The Form Expert data across all key filters—going, course, trip, field size, and class—supports him above a field that struggles to match his winning consistency in these precise conditions.