Lossiemouth Dominates Cheltenham Champion Hurdle
The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1 at Cheltenham on 10 March presents a nine-runner field over two miles on Good to Soft going. This is the blue riband of British hurdling, and the form book tells a clear story.
The Selection: Lossiemouth
Lossiemouth is the standout pick. The seven-year-old has a flawless record on Good to Soft going: 3 wins from 3 runs. At Cheltenham specifically, she is 4 from 4. Over the two-mile trip, she shows 12 wins from 16 runs. In Class 1 company, she has won 12 times from 16 starts. His recent form reads 1112-F1111-2, showing a tumble three runs back but five wins in his last eight. With a Combined Score of 1606 and RaceMetrics Rating of 1645, she is the highest-rated horse in the field. Paul Townend is in the saddle, and connections have timed the run perfectly, with 37 days since his last outing. At 2.88, she is the market favourite—and the data justifies it.
The Danger: The New Lion
The New Lion cannot be ignored. Dan Skelton's seven-year-old holds an exceptional record on Good to Soft going: 6 wins from 6 runs. He is 2 from 2 at Cheltenham and has won 5 from 6 over distances under two miles two furlongs. In Class 1, he stands at 3 wins from 4. His form string (1111-1F-1) shows tremendous consistency, with only a fall interrupting a sequence of wins. However, he carries 45 days since his last run—longer than most in this field—which may dull his edge on the day. At 3.50, he offers the best alternative.
The Concern: Brighterdaysahead
Brighterdaysahead is a formidable horse: 2 wins from 2 on Good to Soft and an extraordinary 10 wins from 14 runs overall with 8 wins from 12 in Class 1. His RaceMetrics Rating of 1656 is higher than Lossiemouth's. But—and it is a significant but—he is 0 from 2 at Cheltenham. That blot against her in this venue cannot be dismissed, and at 5.50 she may not offer value given his track record here.
Verdict
Lossiemouth to win at 2.88. Perfect on the going, perfect at the track, perfect over the trip, and perfect in the class. The data could not be clearer.
