Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase Preview

Cheltenham plays host to the Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase on 10 March — a Class 1 three-miler over good-to-soft ground with a competitive 22-runner field. This is a meaningful test of handicap chasing credentials, and the data points to a clear favourite who has work to do to justify short odds.

The Selection

Jagwar (No. 4) at 4.50 is the pick. His RaceMetrics Rating of 1612 tops the field, and the Form Expert data backs that edge. He has won twice at Cheltenham from four runs and is a two-time course winner, a powerful statement in a race where several rivals have never landed a blow here. Crucially, Jagwar holds a Class 1 win from three runs in these conditions — exactly the filter that matters today. At 45 days since his last run, he arrives fresh enough, and his recent form (145113-113-2) shows consistent top-three finishes.

The Dangers

Hyland (No. 13) represents the chief threat. Despite being 80 days absent, his Cheltenham record is outstanding: three wins from five runs at the track. However, Form Expert reveals a softer underbelly in this race's specific Class 1 grade — just one win from seven Class 1 attempts. His RaceMetrics Rating of 1592 is strong but trails Jagwar's 1612, and the extended absence is a legitimate concern in a handicap at this level.

Resplendent Grey (No. 3) boasts the highest RaceMetrics Rating among the bottom half (1625) and has the best overall win rate in the field (7 wins from 19 runs). Yet the Form Expert filters expose critical weaknesses: he is untried on good-to-soft ground in Class 1 company (0 wins from 6 Class 1 starts) and has never won at Cheltenham from four attempts. He thrives over shorter trips (6 wins from 11 runs under 2m2f) but this three-miler may stretch his suitability.

At A Price

Knight Of Allen (No. 20) at 17.00 merits consideration as value. His Form Expert record on good-to-soft going is exceptional — two wins from two runs — a small sample but perfect. He has three Class 1 wins from 11 career starts and arrives fresh at just 31 days since his last outing. The low OR (131) suggests he may be well-handicapped, and his recent form (2-133-3121-42) shows consistent placing.

Verdict

Jagwar to win. Superior Class 1 form, proven at Cheltenham, and the highest RaceMetrics Rating in the race make him the clear selection, even at odds-on.