Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase Preview
Cheltenham stages a Grade 2 test over two miles four furlongs on Good To Soft ground with a field of eight runners. This is a competitive contest among staying mares, with the top three by combined score separated by just 17 rating points.
The Selection
Panic Attack at 3.50 is the standout play. She holds a combined score of 1545 and carries a Class 1 record of 5 wins from 6 runs—the best strike rate in the field at this level. Over the 2m2f–4f trip she shows 5 wins from 14 runs, and critically, on Good To Soft going specifically she boasts 7 wins from 11 runs. At Cheltenham she has won twice from seven visits, so she is proven at the track. Having last run 58 days ago, she should arrive fresh and ready, and the combination of form, trip suitability, and ground preference points clearly in her favour.
The Dangers
Dinoblue is the favourite at 2.88 and owns the highest RaceMetrics Rating at 1682. She is a three-time winner at Cheltenham and has won here before, which counts for plenty. Over 2m2f–4f she shows 3 wins from 5 runs, and in Class 1 she is prolific with 9 wins from 21 runs. On Good To Soft going she has 2 wins from 9 runs—a respectable record but not exceptional. She ran just 34 days ago, so fitness is not a concern. The price reflects her credentials, but Panic Attack offers better value given superior Class 1 form and trip profile.
Spindleberry at 6.50 deserves close attention. She is untried at Cheltenham and untried on turf at Good To Soft going, which are minor question marks. However, her record over 2m2f–4f is outstanding: 6 wins from 8 runs. In Class 1 she shows 4 wins from 7 runs. She is a distance winner and carries an H Rating of 1604, placing her third by RaceMetrics evaluation. The concern is the unknown variables of track and ground, but if she handles both, she could easily overturn the form.
At A Price
July Flower at 10.00 holds genuine appeal as a value outsider. She is a course winner with 1 win from 2 runs at Cheltenham and has won on Good To Soft going (1 win from 2 runs on turf at that condition). Over 2m2f–4f she shows 2 wins from 4 runs. She hasn't run for 77 days, which could work either way, but her Cheltenham form is rock-solid and her trip credentials are proven.
Verdict
Back Panic Attack at 3.50. Her 5 wins from 6 Class 1 starts and 7 wins from 11 on Good To Soft ground are the data that matter; proven at the track and trip, and no question marks about conditions.
