Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle — Cheltenham, 10 March 2026
The Grade 1 Supreme opens Cheltenham's Festival with a twelve-runner field over 2m on Good To Soft ground. This is peak novice hurdling, and the data tells a clear story about who belongs here.
The Selection: Sober Glory
Sober Glory is the pick at 11.00. The Philip Hobbs charge carries a RaceMetrics Rating of 1591 — the joint-highest in the field — and the Form Expert data is emphatic: 3 wins from 3 runs on Good To Soft going, 6 wins from 7 over the trip (<2m2f), and 1 win from 2 in Class 1. He ran just 31 days ago and meets every condition requirement for this race with a proven record. At 11.00, he represents value given that pedigree.
The Dangers
Old Park Star (3.50) is the market favourite and the data justifies some of that support. He carries a RaceMetrics Rating of 1584, won at Cheltenham (1 win from 1 run), and holds a Class 1 victory (1 from 1). Over the trip he's 3 wins from 6. However, he failed on Good To Soft going (0 from 1) and hasn't raced in 52 days — a concern going into a Grade 1.
Talk The Talk (5.50) sits at 1547 RaceMetrics and cannot be dismissed. He's won 2 from 3 in Class 1 and 3 from 5 over <2m2f. That's a strong profile. The caveat: he's untried on Good To Soft going — a material unknown for ground conditions that define this track on Festival day.
At A Price
Mydaddypaddy (9.00) is worth considering. His RaceMetrics Rating is 1565, and his Form Expert record is compelling over the trip: 3 wins from 4 runs at <2m2f. He's untried in Class 1 (0 from 1) and on Good To Soft (no runs), so there's real risk. But at 9.00, if the ground doesn't stop him, his trip form is the standout in the field after Sober Glory's.
Verdict
Sober Glory wins. Perfect record on the ground, proven over the trip, Class 1 winner, and fresh enough. The market has mispriced him at 11.00.
